Tensions first emerged over Ankara’s support for al-Qaeda-linked Islamist groups during the Syrian civil war, and intensified when Erdoğan was blamed for causing the mass migration of Syrian refugees into southern Europe. This has led to questions being raised among Western leaders about Turkey’s continued reliability as a Nato ally. Once hailed as a pro-business moderniser who would forge closer ties with Europe – including Turkey joining the EU – the 69-year-old Turkish president’s two decades in power have seen him adopt an increasingly autocratic approach to governing his country’s affairs, one that has acquired a distinctly Islamist outlook. With the Turkish economy in meltdown and the country still struggling to come to terms with February’s devastating earthquake, opposition parties believe they have a rare opportunity to oust Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the country’s authoritarian leader.

They will be deciding whether Ankara can maintain its position as a vital pivot of the Western alliance. When Turks go to the polls at the weekend, they will not only be determining the future course of their country’s political development.

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